Interesting and Valuable Viewpoint

One thing I particularly enjoy about Andrew Sullivan is that some of the world's most brilliant and influential political minds read his blog, and often send in their comments, which Andy obligingly posts for all to read.

This particular e-mail caught my attention because it added greatly to my knowledge of the Iraq conflict, taking bits of information I had in the back of my head, and pulling them out and rearranging them in an fashion that redefines the way I think about certain things.

For all the problems, Iraq (and its neighbors) are still better off without Saddam. The danger of a Sunni Jihadi Talibanesqe stronghold are exaggerated, if only by the stark demographics. Sunni Arabs are only 15-20% of the country. If real civil war and ethnic cleansing breaks out, the Sunni Arabs are doomed. Saudis and other Arab countries getting involved in a regional war with Iran? Other than some financial support and a few thousand lunatic Jihadis, it is not very likely. They will sell out the Saddam loyalists even quicker than they did the Palestinians. Iran need not get overtly involved anyway - Shia forces in Iraq can force their will on the Sunnis without much help.

So in other words, it's quite easy to predict the general course of events in Iraq once American troops depart. It will be quick, bloody, brutal, and finished in short order. (Kind of like the way things went when Saddam was around, eh?) More comforting (and interesting) is the fact that the Saudis and Iranians are not likely to become directly involved.

Well, I said it from the beginning: These are people with a centuries-old animosity towards each other. There can be no democracy... only brutality... where Sunnis and Shias are concerned. Simply put, that is just The Way Things Are, and cannot be changed.