I can at least be proud of myself because I predicted that this would happen. Somewhere, there is a quarter-million-dollar-a-year think tank job with my name on it.Saudi Arabia has told the Bush administration that it might provide financial backing to Iraqi Sunnis in any war against Iraq’s Shiites if the United States pulls its troops out of Iraq, according to American and Arab diplomats.Of course, nobody is stupid enough (including the Saudis) to believe that if they send money (not that they haven't already, of course) to fight the Shi'ites, that the Iranians will sit idly by and not up the ante at some point by sending more than money... such as actual people... to fight the Sunnis (not that they haven't already, of course).
Of course, nobody is stupid enough (including the Iranians) to think that Sunnis from all over the region won't go running to Iraq to fight the truest infidels of all... the Shi'ites... if there aren't Americans at the border to stop them.
Of course, nobody is stupid enough to think that with Saudia Arabia and Iran (and Syria and Lebanon) actively participating in a civil war in Iraq that things will just stay nice and... civil... Do they?
Of course, nobody is stupid enough not to have expected that that is exactly what would happen once America left Iraq, right? I mean, I can't be the only one on earth who said that invading Iraq was a bad idea because something like this would happen, right?
No: It's true. I'm the only one who said it.** Everyone else told you about "Democracy springing up all over the Middle East like big happy tulips!" I'm the only one who compared Saddam to Soviet Russia, and the Shi'ites and Sunnis in Iraq to the Bosnians and Serbs in Yugoslavia. (Hell: it's worse. The Bosnians and Serbs have only hated each other for 500 years. Shi'ites and Sunnis have hated each other for 1300 years.)
By the way... if you don't yet know the difference between Shi'ites and Sunni Muslims, why they hate each other, and just how much they hate each other, then you are sadly behind on your current events reading. Might I suggest this link as a 4-minute primer to at least get you out of complete ignorance of Muslim society. If you're not going to click and read, then know this one thing: Sunnis rank Shi'ites higher than Jewish people on their "people we hate most" list, and the opposite is true for Shi'ites as well.
** I'm sorry that the blog I kept before this one was wiped by Yahoo Inc, which really did have me saying exactly that. But ask my mother... I'm sure she remembers reading it: I gave 2 reasons not to invade Iraq (which, unlike everyone else's beliefs supporting the invasion of Iraq, haven't changed one iota in the ensuing 3 or 4 years).
The first reason I said we shouldn't invade Iraq was because I believed that whatever WMDs Saddam did have would be snuck out of the country on the first day of the war (which I probably was wrong about, but (a) I don't deny having said it; and (b) it is something that really can't be proven right or wrong regardless... at least until somebody uses or finds them).
The second reason I said we shouldn't invade Iraq was because I believed that Saddam, like the USSR in Yugoslavia, was the only thing keeping the lid on a genocidal war between two religious factions. I also predicted that if Sunnis and Shi'ites in Iraq started fighting each other, that Sunnis in Saudi Arabia would obviously come and fight alongside the Sunnis in Iraq, and Shi'ites in Iran would obviously come and fight alongside the Shi'ites.
You mean it's actually happening??? Gasp! Clutch my pearls! Shriek like a fairy!
Amazing that a twerpy little blogger like myself was able to grasp the religious ramifications of invading Iraq, while the entire White House executive staff and Joint Chiefs of Staff and Defense Department executive staff and State Department staff seemed completely clueless.
Like I said... Think tank job, here I come.
2 comments:
Excellent post. A question for you. As the Shiites and Sunnis duke it out, where does that leave the Kurds? Your best think tank opinion, puh-leeze.
Good question. I was thinking about that as I wrote this post... and really don't have an answer.
The Turks are nervous about the Kurds in Eastern Turkey... don't want them getting too uppity or something. (Sorry... don't have time to look up the details at the moment... this is from memory.)
The Kurds also have fair-weather American support, and have always had it, so while the Americans may leave Iraq, they probably won't abandon the Kurds (like they did last time).
My guess is that the Kurds (who are much more mobile than their other Iraqi countrymen) will eventually pick up and move north, to the area close to the Turkish border, and will set up shop there as either a sub-state of whatever country Iraq becomes, or as an independent nation of their own (assuming Turkey allows it).
Although it must be remembered that (I think) there is a lot of oil wealth in the north that the Kurds are sitting on, so there could be some very pissed off Iraqis if the Kurds declare independence — while sitting on the majority of the region's oil supply — in the aftermath of a civil war.
The Kurds won't be involved much... if at all... in any religious violence that I can predict. But (as I said, I am not looking this up) I don't know what their religious affiliation is exactly, so I could be mistaken.
Anyway... as I said... it is hard to predict where the Kurds will wind up, although my best prediction is: "Better off than they were under Saddam."
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