BP's Statistical Review of World Energy has come out with a report stating that the world has until 2047 — another 40 years — until our proven reserves of oil run out... assuming that we somehow manage to keep the planet at its current level of demand/production.(Talk to China about that, and see what they think about not building any more factories, cars, et cetera.)
What should happen when that 40 years is up and oil production fails to meet demand? You can look back to the 1970s for your answer, to a time when oil production was curtailed to only 95% of oil demand: The price of oil rose 400% in response to a 5% difference in supply versus demand. A shortfall of as much as 10% to 15% is expected to send us into a worldwide depression of historical proportions.
Note: This is what an oil company is saying. This is the rosy picture: 40 years left until that 10% to 15% shortfall becomes a reality. Geologists and people who used to work in the oil industry, but have since quit, say the amount of time left is substantially less: They say it's only 4 years.
Also, think about what else happens when we start to run out of oil: The prices of plastic (made from oil) will skyrocket. The price of pesticides and fertilizers (made from oil) will skyrocket. The price of manufacturing (heavily dependent on oil) will skyrocket. Name one thing in your life that doesn't directly or indirectly rely on plastic, pesticides, or manufacturing.
You can help out here folks: It's easy. The next time you look to buy a new car, make a serious inquiry with your car dealer about alternative fuel or hybrid cars. Even if you decide not to buy an A.F. or hybrid vehicle in the end, your expressed interest in that technology will get fed back to car manufacturers as "demand", and that demand will speed up research and development.
Additionally, if you are building a house, ask about solar panels. If you own a company, ask your local electric supplier about renewable or green energy sources to supplement your company's power consumption.
Just ask... that's all. If the technology isn't right for you yet... at least you will have taken a look, expressed your interest, given your feedback, and can expect that interest to be acted upon by people who want to do business with you.
Eventually, the technological advances brought about by the effort to meet public interest in A.F. and hybrid motors and non-petroleum sources of energy will free aircraft, shipping, railways, and even manufacturing from the use of oil. This will leave the remaining oil sources that we have in the ground to be used for durable goods and petrochemical production which we more or less cannot live without.
Think about it: Even the oil companies — whose P.R. goals are to keep us from worrying about oil running out — are telling us that we only have 40 years left. Believe them, even if you don't believe the geologists who state that the number is closer to 4 years. If you have children, they most certainly will be seeing the end of oil as a primary source of energy in their lifetimes. It's up to us to start the process of changing this world from oil-dependent to oil-independent. If we don't start the shift now — while we can rely on oil as a temporary crutch to back us up and help us along — we will be forced to do it cold turkey, in a rush, with the burden of skyrocketing energy costs, diminishing returns, and with less margin for error at a not-too-distant time in the future.
The "end of oil" is really a point in time we do not want to meet unprepared. If we arrive at the "end of oil" without another energy production system able to replace every current ship, plane, car, train, and factory engine, it will literally mean "the end of the world as we know it": The entire transportation network will simply stop. Manufacturing will stop. The shipping of goods will stop. If you live more than a mile away from the nearest corn field, cow, or apple tree, you're going to have to put in a lot of effort to buy something to eat... assuming you still have money to buy food because you can still do your job without a car... assuming your business can still function without trucks.... assuming your business' customers can still function without shipping/receiving... et cetera, et cetera.
So start thinking about finding ways to free yourself from oil. Start nosing around. Start finding out information. Bring the subject up with people and talk about it. Keep it in mind. That's all... Just ask.
Source.
7 comments:
petrochina two months ago found the largest oil deposit ever found in cental asia
xom also found the biggest ever deposit an US soil recently.
maybe BP's will be running out in 40 years. they have the most inept exploration team of any of the major oil companies
I agree with previous comment. I believe most of this info is propaganda. I am sure if Big Oil companies are putting out this false info they have some goal. That goal is not to help us. It is always to help them. Such as Tax relief or government research money. The sky is not falling and Y2k is a long forgotten propaganda that this issue along with many others resemble. From Jakal
Hmmm... interesting:
Two comments in a row disagree with both the scientists (4 years) and the oil industry (40 years), and say there is simply nothing to worry about... all is well with our oil supplies.
OK fellas: How about 60 years? 80 years? 100 years? What's the year you will agree with on which the world grinds to a hault? Or are you one of those 1920's optimists who is willing to suggest that oil supplies discovered will keep out-running oil demanded?
Disbelieve even the oil companies' most optimistic predictions if you will, but oil will run out eventually. Then how far are you willing to walk (or bicycle) for a loaf of bread?
its propaganda to keep oil prices high. plus its traded in USD US goverment has control printing money and buying oil. it wants to keep the price high and temper runaway gowth in China.
dont believe anything in the papers or research notes made by publicity seeking institutions. Bp's report was in the daily mail on the day it hit the wires.
the snake that bites you is the one you cant see ;)
Why blame China.
What about all the yanks and their SUV 8 litre tanks?
How do you figure I "blamed" China?
China is the fastest growing economy on the planet. In order for worldwide oil consupmtion to remain stable, China's growth... more importantly than every other country's... would have to remain stable. That's not blame, that's just pointing out the plain economic facts as they are.
It isn't that America doesn't consume a lot of oil... it's the number one consumer of oil in the world by volume. However, America has been in that number one spot for the past 75 years quite consistently. In fact, over the last 40 years, increases in oil consumption in America have been about the same as Europe... and much less than the world as a whole (79% for U.S. versus 164% for the world). (Source)
Compare that to China, which has had a 3,118% increase in oil demand over the last 40 years. One third of all increases in year-to-year worldwide oil demand are from China. (Source)
Just 20 years ago, China wasn't even in the top 10 of oil consumers... now it is #2 in the world, and is going to surpass America as the number one oil consumer in a very short period of time.
So there you have it: Yanks and their SUV 8 litre tanks have, in comparison to the world as a whole, been consuming less and less oil as a percentage of global consumption over the past 40 years... not more.
I bike 500-700 miles every month and haven't driven my car (except once a month to keep it alive) in over a year. So this is a chicken little issue... hmmm... I wonder about the HUMAN INDUCED global warming thing...
Where do I collect my cookie ?
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