Republican Win-Win

So here's the gist: California is considering scrapping the "electoral college" process (the process where the winner of a popular vote inside of California receives all of California's electoral votes), and instead are planning on giving all their electoral votes to the Presidential candidate who wins the most votes nationwide.

Now, why is this a problem for Democrats?

Simple: California will almost never vote for a Republican Presidential candidate when that person is in a close race with the Democratic candidate. To put it simply, California leans quite a bit Democratic. Therefore, in a close race, California will always swing for the Democratic Presidential candidate. (Note: I said a CLOSE race... i.e. a race in which this new election rule might actually have an effect on the election.)

If the Democratic candidate wins a nationwide popular vote, then nothing is gained and nothing is lost with California's change in the electoral vote system: That candidate will get all of California's votes, just like before.

However, in a close election, if the Republican wins the popular vote nationwide, California still will likely swing for the Democratic candidate, but California would give their electoral college votes to the Republican candidate instead.

You see, when the lead in the polls between Presidential candidates is less then, oh..., 10% or so (which is the only time when California's new rule would actually make a difference), the likelihood that California will vote Democratic is currently exceptionally high. Therefore, the only candidate that could theoretically lose California by losing the popular vote is...

The Democratic candidate.

Get it?

(Now, if all 50 states were to join California, of course, that would be great. No problem. I'd be a huge supporter of this idea.)

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UPDATE:

This opinion piece makes a broader point about the Constitutional problems behind this new electoral rule. I like their opinion better than my own.