Well, first of all, I really didn't believe that North Korea would get a successful nuclear weapon test the first time around. Second of all, I didn't really think that they would actually explode a nuclear weapon for one simple reason:North Korea only has one friend left in the world, and that is China. China has basically said that the only thing that North Korea could do that would make China rethink its friendship with them is to explode a nuclear weapon. Without China propping it up, North Korea is screwed.
Seems to put the ball squarely in the Chinese government's court, doesn't it?
Obviously South Korea is going to have zero diplomatic relations with NK after this (as compared to barely any prior to this). Japan cut off all contact and financial aid when NK test fired missles this summer. America certainly isn't going to be negotiating soon. Russia never was much of a player. That leaves just China... and China is basically the lifeblood of all things necesary to sustain life in NK, including oil, electricity, food, et cetera.
That leaves just China's reaction to this. It is either going to try to pooh-pooh what happened (which I doubt), or they are going to choke North Korea for a couple of weeks and see how they like being hungry and cold and in the dark. (Well, the North Koreans can always hug their remaining nuclear bombs for warmth, eh?) It seems rather stupid to wait until the very onset of winter to pull this stunt.
Well, who knows? Maybe the North Koreans know in advance what the Chinese are actually going to do in reaction to having exploded a nuclear bomb on the Korean peninsula. Like I said, I find it surprising because this test explosion seems to guarantee one reaction. Maybe the North Koreans know something I don't know. I doubt it though: If history is any indication, they are really just plain stupid.
By the way, a few thoughts: (1) It will be interesting to see what the yield of the bomb was. The Hiroshima bomb was 40 kilotons, which is about 1% of modern day weapons which are in the neigborhood of 4 megatons. (2) I'll bet Denny Hastert is sending roses to Pyongyang for helping everybody to forget about the Foley Case. (3) I'll bet that the first word out of President Bush's mouth tomorrow morning (when he sits down at his cabinet meeting) is "Iran". (4) Heh. I'll bet that's going to be part of every news story tomorrow actually: How Iran is actually only weeks away from exploding a bomb of their own... even though intelligence says it is closer to a decade. That's good news for President Bush if the media run with that line of B.S.
UPDATE
According to one blog, The Today Show spent 90 seconds on North Korea, and then went right back to the Foley scandal. Sorry: As much as I love watching the hypocrites (R-Everywhere) getting char-broiled on TV, what have happened to our priorities?
Actually, has America ever had its priorities straight when it comes to what is news?
UPDATE II
Well, the preliminary results are in, and the best guess on the yield of the bomb is under 1 kiloton. I read someplace else that the technology to create a a nuclear bomb that small is extra advanced science (20 kilotons being about the smallest for nuclear beginners), and so therefore the verdict: DUD.And just because it needs to be said, this should not let NK off the hook. I hope that China finally wakes up and does something about their petulant little pissant neighbor.
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