The Future Of Pattaya

I've commented a lot on the direction I think Pattaya is going, most of it referring to a downhill trend. I think I'm going to revise that.

I think now it is more likely that Pattaya will just continue to improve and upgrade... just not as quickly as I would like.

In the future, run-down shop houses that generate a few hundred baht per square meter per month will be replaced with more upscale and profitable retail spaces slowly but surely. Soviet-grade apartment buildings providing housing to thousands of Thai people will be refurbished with sit down toilets and hot water heaters and air conditioners, and will then cater to a few hundred much-more-profitable British pensioners. Vast plots of low-end, dime-a-dozen cement shacks currently posing as bungalows will be snatched up and replaced with Thai McMansions sitting squarely upon property that used to accommodate 3 or 4 of the miniature abodes. Vast empty lots hosting the poorest of the poor in tin-roof and cardboard shacks will become resort hotels or luxury rentals.

To put it simply, when land is selling for a million dollars an acre in central Pattaya, you don't waste it by putting up $150 a month apartments. To put it simply, if you have an acre of land in central Pattaya that currently has $150 a month apartments sitting on it, it will not be long before simple economics comes to bear.

The new airport, the possible high-speed railway, the probable casino, the new highway bypass, in addition to a more mobile and smaller world, means quite simply that more people will be coming to Pattaya.

... more people who aren't Thai, that is.

I imagine that in 20 to 30 years, there is going to be very few housing opportunities for Thai people anywhere close to the area that generally constitutes Pattaya/Naklua/Jomtien currently... and then some. In 20 or 30 years (not considering inflation), the cheapest studio apartments in Pattaya will be 20,000 baht per month ($500), which is fine for a Western retirement budget, but is far away from what a migrant Thai worker (or six) can afford.

So, the Pattaya of 25 years from now will have a lower population density than it does today, but will accomplish this by expatriate gentrification, uprooting thousands upon thousands of Thai people. The Pattaya of the future will be overwhelmingly populated by Westerners.

More properties and places that cater to Western expectations of quality and upkeep will open, while Thai-targeted stalls and markets will move out to the burbs, where it will be easier to find cheap space and customers. Additionally, a large number of those new Western-oriented properties and places will be built with some sort of "tropical Thailand" in mind, turning up the volume on Pattaya's beach resort vibe. The days of tossing together a guesthouse on Soi Lenkee for $25,000 will be long gone soon... only serious money need apply. As the competition for the Western dollar goes up with the number of Western-oriented businesses, so will the quality of construction, presentation, atmosphere, service, and style.

As for Walking Street and Pattaya's 1200 beer bars? Well, you can expect the dives and the holes to get snatched up by eager millionaires who will turn those places into glittering palaces of sex and sleaze... but you can be certain that the gogo bars are not going to dissappear. Pattaya will manage — thanks to the propensity of Thai people to tear anything down that is older then 10 years (and isn't a temple) — to rebuild itself into a top-class beach resort, and still manage to keep the raunch and ruckus front and center.

But, there ain't a damn thing anybody can do to make Soi Diana (and dozens of other 1-lane thoroughfares) 10 feet wider. Oh well... can't have everything.