Delusions of Greatness

One thing that every expatriate here seems to be guilty of (and this is especially true, reading comments related to the new visa rules) is severely overestimating the value of the farang residents of Pattaya to the local (and national) economy. I myself am guilty at times as well.

We love to say, "If the Thai government does X, then expatriates will do Y, and then Z economic disaster will happen."

If you exclude professional expatriates — those who are working for multinationals or governments, and very large business owners ($1 million-plus in capital, say) — and include only retirees, small business owners, and other minimally or marginally employed long-term residents, then we are an economic force to be considered, but we could hardly wreck the Thai (or Pattayan) economy if we acted in unison.

In total numbers here in Pattaya, we represent less than 10% of everything: We are less than 10% of the farang arrivals in Pattaya in any given year. We operate less than 10% of the businesses. We create less than 10% of Pattaya's gross domestic product. Nationwide, the number is far less than 1%.

Even up in Isaan, which we believe we economically sustain on our own shoulders via monthly remittances through our girlfriends, the economy feels barely a ripple from our help in comparison to all other economic undertakings in the region.

So, I always remind myself to chuckle (instead of joining in the sky-is-falling fracas) when — in response to tightening visa rules for expatriates — the chorus of "Pattaya is doomed! Home prices will plummet! Bars will close!" is raised. Trust me: If every expatriate on recurring 30-day visas was chucked out of Thailand tomorrow, Walking Street's bottom line would barely wiggle. (The all-you-can-eat 99-baht farang food restaurants though would certainly be in a pickle.)

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Small print: Me a'-figurin'

Let's say that the average farang resident in Pattaya spends 30,000 baht per month, and there are 20,000 farang residents in Pattaya. That would be 600 million baht per month, or $15 million. The average tourist in tourist in Thailand spends 3,500 baht per day, and on average, 400,000 tourists per month visit pattaya. If tourists stay for an average of 3 days, that is 4.2 billion baht per month, or $105 million. That means that long-term residents represent about 14% of all expenditures. A little above 10%, but still not enough to collapse Pattaya's nightlife economy... especially when you take into account that the farang residents spend almost no money on "nightlife" or hotels compared to the tourists.